Indian Markets Next week September 22nd 2008

Last week markets all over the world went through a very high volatile phase. Financial crisis scared the investors but settled down with the intervention of Federal Reserve. Markets tumbled following the news of Lehman bankruptcy, Merrill’s take over, AIG’s request for bail out etc. It’s really gestation period. Fed has come out with a bail out plan to rescue more companies. But the big question is if they could come out of this big crisis in the near future. As far as the Indian companies are concerned, every one is waiting for Q3 results. They might not be as good as they were expected earlier. Any surprises would boost the Sensex at least for couple of thousands.

Wholesale Price Index based inflation was slightly up at 12.14 for the week ended September 6th against a previous figure of 12.10. The monetary measures taken by RBI and fiscal measures taken by the Government are expected to yield results only after November. Till that time 2 digit inflation is a sure-shot. Crude prices are little over $100. It’s not the centre of the news as some interesting news flowing down every day. Read more

September 22, 2008 | Filed Under Market Analysis | Leave a Comment

Indian Markets Next week September 15th 2008

Last week Sensex started with a positive note following Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)’s nod to Indo-US nuclear deal without India signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty. It touched a high of 15,107 before falling down consecutively for four trading sessions. It touched a low of 13,934 and ended at 14,000. Sensex could not sustain the high levels despite lower inflation figures and higher IIP numbers.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation dipped to 12.10 per cent for the week ended August 30 against 12.34 per cent for the week ended August 23rd. The manufacturing index number actually increased by 0.3% and is a cause for worry.

Spot Crude oil prices came down to $96 per barrel on account of strengthening dollar and week global economy. The rupee fell on Friday to a fresh 23 month low of 45.76/77, against the US currency. Read more

September 14, 2008 | Filed Under Market Analysis | Leave a Comment

Indian Markets Next week August 18th 2008

Sensex closed at 14,725, down 443 points from the previous weekend figure. It lost 370 points on the last trading session of the week, Thursday. Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC banned naked short selling on 19 financial stocks saying that “It would protect the normal price discovery process". As a result US markets didn’t fall as expected. But the guess is the prices will fall again once they are out of ban from short selling.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation rose to a 13 year high of 12.44 % for the week ended August 2nd. This time fruit and fuel prices added oil to the burning inflation. The inflation rate is expected to be in double digit for the remaining calendar year as the fiscal measures taken by the Government will yield result only in December.

Spot crude oil price closed around $114 a barrel. It touched recent lows in the previous week. Crude oil’s 23 percent retreat since a July record of $147.27 a barrel along with naked short selling has driven a four-week rebound in U.S. stocks.

Markets are expected to volatile in this week. They may fall, if not a complete collapse at least few hundred points of Sensex. Industrial growth arte is expected to come down for this financial year.
rrel has driven a four-week rebound in U.S. stocks.

August 16, 2008 | Filed Under Market Analysis | Leave a Comment

Indian Markets Next week August 11th 2008

Sensex breached 15,000 level, but as expected it didn’t lead to continue the winning streak. Markets consolidated in the last two sessions of the week, closing at 15168.

Inflation rate has crossed 12%. The wholesale price index showed 12.01% for the week ended July 26th. It’s the highest value since May 1994. Fuel, power, light and lubricants rose 0.2 percent due to higher prices of furnace oil. It’s expected to come down little bit for the next week.

Crude oil spot prices came down below $120 a barrel. On expectations of slow down in the consumption of fuel by US the prices have come down. Earlier the three day losing streak had come to an end after Turkey announced that a pipeline carrying crude to the Mediterranean from Azerbaijan may remain shut for two weeks following an explosion on August 5. But again it was trading at $116 a barrel on Friday in the morning session.

As a whole the global market scenario hasn’t changed much. Markets may not sustain their recent highs due to profit booking in the coming week. But all the bad factors have almost been accounted. It would be a buying opportunity again if markets fall out again.

August 8, 2008 | Filed Under Market Analysis | Leave a Comment

Indian Markets Next week August 4th 2008

The political stability is not a concern now for the Indian markets. Inflation has surged again. After decreasing to 11.89% a week earlier, it again increased to 11.98% for the week ended July 19th. This increase can be attributed to the higher prices of some food and manufactured products.

The talk of the previous week was sudden increase in repo rate by the Reserve Bank of India to contain inflation. The RBI announced a 0.5 percentage hike in the repo rate to 9 percent which is at a seven-year high and lifted the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 0.25% to 9 per cent. RBI also lowered its GDP growth forecast for the country to 8 per cent for 2009, down from between 8 per cent and 8.5 per cent previously. Markets slumped as soon as the news was out. But markets gain the momentum at the end of the week even when the global markets were down.

On August 1st the crude oil last traded at $125.10. It increased on the account of Israeli announcement on Iran’s nuclear program. Though some important support levels are crossed it’s still interesting to watch the markets this week. This whole year would be a gestation period as some global factors still need to come in good.

August 3, 2008 | Filed Under Market Outlook | Leave a Comment